Posted on by Abe Austin

The Trouble with Statistics in Recovery: Part Three

Statistics Criteria)

Over the last two posts I’ve examined the nature of statistics, and why they shouldn’t be used to predict one’s personal journey in recovery. I’ve spent time explaining that statistics are meant as a measurement of external uncertainty, and to model a group, but how they cannot represent your internal, individual state.

There is also one other limitation of statistics that makes them a poor crystal ball into your personal future. This is that every statistical survey has to clearly define the criteria that it is measuring for. Success and failure are described in clear, binary terms, which often fail to perfectly capture our nuanced, complicated world.

As an example, most surveys related to addiction seem to define success as simply not having another slip or relapse. People in recovery are surveyed, they answer if they have had a relapse since starting recovery, and that becomes the statistic of recovery. And even if the survey is more in-depth, it tends to only be this narrow, easily digestible slice that gets represented in web articles and everyday conversation.

And as the data shows, it turns out that most addicts who enter recovery will slip at some point in their first year. So, in conclusion, most addicts will fail their recovery and never get better.

Recovery vs Sobriety)

Well, no. It’s not as simple as that. Anyone that has been in close proximity to an addiction recovery program will be very familiar with the statement that “relapse is part of the journey.” Which is to say, that yes, almost everyone will relapse, but no, that doesn’t mean that their recovery journey is a failure.

Recovery is a process, and in most addicts, it means following the program, failing in a moment of weakness, and then recommitting to the program. Over time, rather than all at once, the addict pries off the grip of vice until he finally he can live free of it. Then, at last, he will be sober. When we fixate our surveys on the number of addicts who remain sober in the first year, we seem to be suggesting that sobriety doesn’t come at all unless it comes in that first twelve months.

So, are there addicts who at some point or another quit and never turn back? Yes. In my experience, if addicts are sincere and committed, then many, if not all, will achieve this state. It’s just that the point in the recovery program where this freedom is won is different for every addict. Thus, defining success as who quits cold turkey as soon as they start the program is an arbitrary and unhelpful goal.

Of course, I want to be sensitive to the fact that addicts want to stop acting out immediately. Their spouses want them to stop acting out immediately. Everyone who knows what’s going on with them wants them to stop acting out immediately. So, of course, at the outset everyone is going to want the addict to be in the small percentage who really do stop acting out as soon as they start the program. The problem is that if the addict “fails” at that goal, then the discouragement might make him give up the program entirely, when he would have eventually achieved success if he had kept with it. What is it that really matters? Immediate success, or just success?

What I am hopefully making clear is the difference between sobriety and recovery. Recovery is working the program faithfully and consistently, bit-by-bit freeing the captive soul. Sobriety is the desired fruit of all that labor, which ripens sooner in some lives and later in others, but all can achieve it if they keep working at their recovery.

One Day at a Time)

It is only natural to wonder what one’s chances of obtaining sobriety are but putting too much stock in the reported statistics is not only discouraging, it is deceiving. Immediate sobriety is not the one, true metric of an addict recovering.

If one wants to know if they will be successful in recovery, they have only to ask themselves if they are going to work the program of recovery for this one day. If their answer is yes, and they actually follow through on that, then yes, they are being successful in recovery. And if they can say and do the same tomorrow, then yes, they are in recovery for that day, too.

This, of course, brings us to the famous twelve step mantra “one day at a time.” The idea is that focusing on lengths of time past one’s immediate control is a fruitless effort. Long-term sobriety is not the result of mustering up the courage to be sober for an entire decade, but by mustering up the courage for a single day, one after another. Thus, ironically, most addicts who achieve ten years of sobriety do it by not worrying about the decade. If the addict is to consider months and years and decades, he does it in retrospect, looking backward upon the mountain of sobriety that was raised, almost by accident, one grain of sand at a time.

The odds of success in your recovery are not determined by what other people did in their first year of recovery. That doesn’t matter to you in the least. All that really matters is the decisions that you make for yourself this very day. This is the only metric of success, and in that field no survey has been conducted. You are the one that will record the numbers for yourself, you are the one who will create your own, personal statistics of success, and you are the one who will define what your fate is to be. In the end, success or failure is entirely up to you.

Posted on by Abe Austin

The Trouble with Statistics in Recovery: Part Two

Yesterday I discussed the use of statistics to predict how likely a person in recovery is to maintain sobriety. These sorts of statistics can be discouraging, as they often make it seem like the addict is unlikely to ever obtain lasting sobriety.

I made the case, however, that statistics have their time and place, but cannot be applied in every situation. They are useful for representing the level of uncertainty in the observer, but not for describing the actual state of the observed. Thus, a coin that is covered only exists in one state (heads or tails), but the uncertainty of the observer is divided between two (heads and tails).

Today I want to consider another fact of statistics which makes it unhelpful in determining what your personal future entails. That fact is that statistics are a tool for measuring groups, but not individuals.

The Sad Case of Sally Clark)

There is a tragic real-life example of how the misapplication of a broad statistic to a single individual is both in appropriate and dangerous. Sally Clark was an English woman who lost one son to SIDS (sudden infant death syndrome) in 1996, and then lost a second son as well in 1998. This was terrible enough, but then it was made worse when Clark was tried for murder. One SIDS death in the family was believable, but two?

As it turned out, there was no concrete evidence to show that Sally Clark had killed either of her two children, but the prosecution brought in Professor Sir Roy Meadow to describe the statistical probability that this mother would have lost two sons to the same rare cause.

Professor Meadow argued that the odds of such an occurrence would be 1 in 73 million, an event so improbable that it could be rejected as a virtual impossibility. Mathematically, he said, Sally Clark had to be a murderer. The jury was convinced, and Sally Clark was sentenced to life in prison.

Four years later, though, it was discovered that the lab reports on the deceased children had omitted clear evidence of the two sons’ deaths being due to natural causes. Clark’s conviction was overturned, and she was released. At this point, though, she had already slipped into a terrible depression, and died shortly thereafter of alcohol poisoning.

Professor Meadow’s application of statistics was torn apart by other mathematicians and statisticians. The numbers he arrived at were simplistic and faulty and he never considered calculating what the likelihood for a mother committing double infanticide is, about 4.5-to-9 times more unlikely than double-SIDS as it turns out! Perhaps most importantly, though, he had made the critical mistake of applying group statistics to an individual.

Consider this, if the odds of a double-SIDS family were genuinely 1 in 73 million, then that would mean for every 73 million mothers you would expect at least one to have lost two children to the phenomenon. 1 in 73 million does not mean that the event does not occur, it means that it does, and you will start seeing multiple occurrences once your population pool is large enough. 73 million is large, but it is not unfathomable for a population. It was inevitable that someone would show up with this situation at some point or another.

By Professor Meadow’s logic we could look at every mother on earth, one at a time, and for each individual conclude that it is too improbable to believe she has lost two children to SIDS. And thus, we would go through the entire population, believing none of them could have suffered that ordeal, when by Meadow’s own statistics there would have been over a hundred women who actually did.

It is the same with addiction recovery. Statistics can define the pattern for a group of addicts, as every group will inherently have a certain likelihood for certain behaviors. But when we apply those likelihoods to the individual we make the subtle, but damning mistake of saying that if something is improbable for everyone, then it is improbable for anyone.

Groups Within Groups)

Statistics can model the group, but they cannot model you. And they especially cannot model you when you consider that inside every group there are more specific subgroups, each with their own accompanying statistics.

By this I mean that most statistics on recovery cover a very broad spectrum of addicts. The odds of sobriety that they give tend to include individuals who have been working a 12-step program for twenty years, and individuals who showed up for the first time today. It includes those that have come of their own volition and those who came only because a judge ordered them to. Clearly not everyone in this broad group is as likely to remain sober as every other.

Every time you take the next step in recovery, you come into a new subgroup, which is represented by better and better odds. Maybe 1-in-10 of all addicts will stick with recovery, but just by returning for the second week you might now belong to a group with a 1-in-9.5 success rate. Do your “step 4 inventory” with another member of your program and you come into another subgroup with even higher levels of recovery. Earn your one-month chip and enter yet another higher-recovery subgroup.

Not to suggest that you are improving your own odds, only that the group statistics are converging more and more to who you actually are. Or at least they would be if the research were conducted down to such granular levels. But you don’t have to take my word for it. Start going to recovery programs for any sustained amount of time and you will quickly see that there is a clear correlation between amount of time working on recovery and length of sobriety.

You Are You)

Hearing discouraging statistics might make you feel like you don’t have a chance of recovery. But never forget that in order to even define the odds researchers must first find a number of successes. They couldn’t say 1-in-10, or 1-in-100, or 1-in-anything until they had found that 1. Never mind what the group pattern might be, the fact remains that there are people who do achieve sobriety, and whatever their methods to get there, it’s safe to assume that they weren’t putting too much stock in “what their odds” were. They got better because they got better. They weren’t 1 in a group, they were 1 in themself, and they decided for themself what that themself was going to be.

Governing your life by statistics is not only a misunderstanding of the science, but also a dangerous game of self-fulfilling prophecy, one that can ironically change the statistics on the subject. There is no statistics on you as an individual. There are statistics on the group, and they are useful for understanding the group, but the group is not you. The group can be documented, but to quote Lawrence of Arabia, for you as an individual “nothing is written.”

Posted on by Abe Austin

The Trouble with Statistics in Recovery: Part One

In addiction recovery it is natural to wonder what one’s chance of success is. If you’re like me, then shortly after you start a program, you’ll be googling something like “what percent of addicts relapse?” I’ll just tell you right now, the results are not encouraging. Depending on your personal flavor of addiction, your chance of never slipping again might be as low as the single digits. This can be a very discouraging realization, both for the addict and for any loved ones that are involved. It can be enough to make one feel that “once an addict, always an addict.”

But I am here to tell you that statistics like these are next to useless when it comes to predicting what your personal story will be. Something about them rang false to me when I first started recovery, and after walking the journey for several years, I gradually came to understand the reasons why.

Statistics of Uncertainty)

Let’s suppose I hold out a coin in front of you, heads-up, and ask you what the chances are that it is heads-up.

“Well it is heads-up,” you might say. “So 100%.”

“But there are two sides, aren’t there? So isn’t it a 50/50 chance?”

“No, I can see it. It’s 100% heads-up, and 0% tails.”

And you’d be right.

Now suppose I cover the coin with my other hand, but I do not rotate it. Still 100% heads?

“Of course,” you say, “it may be covered, but I still know what state it is in. 100% heads up.”

But now suppose I call our friend in, I show him my closed hands, and I tell him there is a coin underneath. I ask him what is the chance that it is heads.

“50%” he says, “and 50% tails.”

And he is right. But you still know it is 100% heads and you are also right.

You are both right because when we talk percentages and statistics we are not talking about the actual state of the coin, we are talking about the state of our own uncertainty. With your inside knowledge you are 100% certain of what the coin is and our friend, without that knowledge, is 50% certain. The numbers you give represent a state of your own selves and not the coin.

And what of the coin? It just is what it is. It isn’t 25% something, or 50%, or even 100%. It just is heads-up or it isn’t, and no matter of ignorant guessing is going to change what it is, even when that guessing is based on statistically sound principles. And not only is the coin what it is, it is also going to be what it is going to be. The mystery and uncertainty of what a flipping coin will land on is only a side-effect of how we view only a narrow slice of time, moving forward at a gradual rate.

The Statistics of You)

And as much as the coin just is what it is, you just are what you are, too. And as much as the coin is just going to be what it is going to be, you are just going to be what you are going to be as well. When you decide to go to recovery, you don’t split off a hundred separate universes and spin a cosmic roulette wheel, hoping it lands on one of the ten realities where you happen to stay sober. When you decide to go to recovery you just are going to see it through, or you just aren’t.

Outsiders may remain uncertain of whether you will maintain sobriety or not. They are ignorant of your inner state, so the best they can do is estimate your chances as a percentage. But you are not an ignorant outsider. You know what your state is and what it isn’t. If you’re honest with yourself, you probably already know whether you’re going to be acting out later this week or not.

The reason why the statistics didn’t feel like an appropriate fit to me when I started recovery was because I knew my own state. Outsiders didn’t know, but I did. I knew some of my group were only there because their wives made them come, but I wasn’t. I knew some were just going through the motions, but I wasn’t. I knew I was going to faithfully be at my recovery group every Tuesday night, and I knew that I was going to be doing my recovery work every other night of the week. I knew that my commitment was real, and I knew that my intentions were serious.

Now you may not be so certain of yourself over the next month and year and decade, but it is possible to be certain of the now. And unlike flipping a coin multiple times, your behavior in the future is affected your behavior in the past. What you choose today weights you more towards one side for the next day. If you are certain of sobriety today, and you follow through with that, then you will be that much more likely of sobriety tomorrow as well.

The Scope of Statistics)

Statistics have their place in the world. They help in defining the probabilities of what is unknowable, and they are useful for modelling large groups. But you are knowable, at least to yourself, and you are an individual, not a group. We’ve spoken to the first of those points today and we’ll examine the other one tomorrow.

Never forget the wonderful fact that you are a person who has free will. You get to choose. You are not a spinning roulette wheel. You are the card that draws itself, and the coin that turns itself. You get to decide your own outcome.

Posted on by Abe Austin · 3 Comments

Two Years In

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Reflections)

And then, just like that, I’m two years into writing this blog! This has certainly been a tumultuous year in the world, and it has been a dramatic year in my personal life as well. Many good things have happened for me and my family: changing jobs, moving to a new house, and getting used to having a new baby in the home, but each of these good things have also disrupted my regular routines, leaving me longing for a sense of consistency.

And during all of that disruption this spiritual study has been one of those pillars of consistency that I have come to rely on. Tethering myself to the regular practice of spiritual devotion has helped me fight the tide of distraction, to push against the temptation to give up my self-care and balance until things are more “normal.” I haven’t been perfect at maintaining my course, but I have definitely been better if I didn’t have these practices to anchor my soul.

My great hope is that the third year of this spiritual study will see me putting roots deep once more and moving from a state of survival to flourishing.

Statistics)

Throughout this year I added 275 entries to this blog, bringing my total up to 565. Those made up 18 new essays, bringing that total up to 51, and 12 monthly updates on how I am trying to make the gospel be more alive in my life. This blog has been picked up in 12 new countries during the last year, resulting in a worldwide spread of 55 countries in all.

Moving Forward)

Each of these anniversaries provides me an excellent opportunity to examine what is working well in my spiritual journey and what could be improved. I have spent some time thinking it over this last week and I have decided that it will be best for me to make a few changes to this blog.

Daily Study)

I have been researching specific topics for two years now, putting together a collection of scriptures and life lessons that convey a single, focused message. I like this style of scripture study and I will surely return to it from time-to-time. Lately, though, I have felt a need to shift from hunting out scriptures to fit into a predetermined category, and to instead let them speak for themselves. I want to take some time to just read them in their own context, allowing them to convey just the messages that they want to convey.

To that end I will discontinue the topical studies for a time and instead shift to a more sequential study. I will read through the scriptures chapter-by-chapter, verse-by-verse, making commentary on the lessons that stand out to me from them. I will not force myself to provide commentary where I have none. I expect that some passages of scripture will be very dense in the impressions that they make on me while others will be sparse. That is alright.

Now from time-to-time I would expect that a category of the gospel will weigh heavily upon me, and when that occurs I will pause my sequential study, get on my soap box, and conduct a topical study on that matter. After that it will be back to the regular, sequential study, at least until I feel the need to change my processes again.

Monthly Check-ins)

Last year I began a practice of checking my pulse spiritually and deciding where I needed to improve my daily practices. I do see great value in this self-analysis, and I do intend to continue it privately, but I will not continue to publicly post the results of those introspections.

It is not that I am opposed to sharing parts of one’s personal journey. I believe that vulnerability is an essential part of shining our light to the world. But I also believe that we typically don’t know which are the truly significant moments of our lives until after the fact, when we look back at all the events as a whole. I feel like taking time to chronicle all the little ebbs and flows of life is actually distracting me from the broader, more significant strokes of my development.

So for the time being I will limit the publicizing of my life lessons to the times that they specifically relate to the topic of my regular, daily scripture study.

Thank You)

Thank you once again for being a part of this journey. Each of us has a very personal, very individual path to walk which no one else can walk for us, but that doesn’t mean that we cannot have accompaniment along the way. You may not be able to take my steps for me, but you can be beside me as I take them.

I thank you for that accompaniment, and I hope that in some way my words convey my companionship with you on your private walk as well. God bless you.

Posted on by Abe Austin

One Year In

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Reflections)

It was one year ago today that I decided to start this blog. At the time I had already been writing a story blog for a year, but felt that it just wasn’t covering the full spectrum of all I wanted to say. I wanted a better platform to directly explore my spiritual thoughts and feelings.

Also, I wanted a way to keep myself honest with my spiritual studies. I have always reviewed the scriptures on a frequent basis, but not on a regular one. I needed something that was more systematic, a dependable daily ritual. I also wanted to try a study approach that was different from my usual “read Genesis Chapter 1, now read Genesis Chapter 2, etc.”

This blog has met all of those needs perfectly. I have been far more reliable in my studies, I have found great value in choosing a topic and following wherever it may lead, and I feel far more aware of where my spirit is healthy, and where it has need to improve.

I have called this out before, but by far the lesson that has stood out most is my need to be a doer of the word, and not a hearer only. This study has helped make me a better hearer, but in the hearing comes the pricking of the conscience to now go and do.

To be sure, I am living a more Christian life now than I was a year ago, and I attribute much of that growth to how this blog has stirred (and at times agitated!) my soul. But I also see that I can do more, and I am very excited to see how I grow this next year when I take my studies deeper.

Statistics)

Before we get to those changes, though, I’d like to reflect on the numbers that make up the previous year. I have made 290 entries for this blog, resulting in 33 essays and 1 poem.
My blog has been read in 43 different countries, and I have been pleasantly surprised at the diversity in where it has been picked up. For example, there have been readers from Pakistan, China, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. This blog’s posts have had “likes” from readers that profess all manner of different religious beliefs, even of atheism.
The process of writing this blog has made me feel a powerful kinship to all others, even those with vastly different beliefs. It seems that much of the internet is focused on sowing discord, but this blog has opened me up to the realization that there are still streams of unity out there.

Moving Forward)

I am very grateful for all that this blog has provided to me, but particularly for the two lessons I have just detailed: that I need to act on the religious principles I study, and that I need to form bonds with all other sincere seekers of truth. I will be taking actions to try and incorporate those lessons into my blog moving forward.
In the first place, at the start of each month I am going to share which way my heart is pushing me to live my discipleship more. I will lay out my commitments for how I will answer my conscience, and then give an account for how things progressed with my next entry one month later.
In the second place, I am going to extend an invitation to all of my readers. I would like you to let me support or help you in any way that I can. In order for this request to not be lost in a wall of text, I will extend this offer in detail through its own post, which I will also publish tomorrow.

Thank You)

I find it very surreal that I live in a world where I can explore my own spirituality, and people all around the globe can participate in the journey. To be honest, my motivations in writing this blog have been largely self-centered. I wanted to understand the scriptures better for my own betterment, I want to answer the questions of my soul, I want to uncover what messages God was saying to me.
But intermingled with those intentions has been the hope that others might derive some benefit from being a witness to my journey. If any of these posts have meant anything to you, thank you.